#101. Conde de Orgaz Collection

Date: 2024-09-26 00:00:00

Lots: 180

Total starting: 73,425.00 €

Total realized: 105,882.00 € (+44.20%)

In this auction, Numistats has matched 84 coins, providing AI-powered purchase recommendations and detailed analysis. View more.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 63 Numistats ref: 656264

coin.showNoMatched
Carlos III Authority
2 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 1515 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 419 References
Carlos III Category
CARLOS III (1759-1788). 2 Escudos. (Au. 6,63g/23mm). 1765. Lima JM (Cal-2019-1515). Primer tipo de cara de rata". MBC-. Rarísima." Description
MBC- Grade
1000 EUR Starting
- Estimate
1600 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
3 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, we will consider several factors:

1. Starting Price: 1000 euros. This is the initial price set for the auction.
2. Condition: The coin has a condition rating of 70 (VF-), indicating that it is in an acceptable state, but not of high quality. This may influence the final price.
3. Auction History: The coin has been auctioned in the past on two occasions, with a hammer price of 380 euros in one of them. This suggests that the market has valued the coin in a lower range than the current starting price.
4. Average Hammer Price: The average hammer price of 380 euros also indicates that, in general, buyers are not willing to pay much more than this amount for the coin.
5. Average Starting Price: The average starting price of 533.33 euros may be an indicator of what sellers have expected to obtain in the past.

Given that the current starting price is significantly higher than previous hammer prices and the average hammer price, it is likely that buyer interest will be limited.

Taking all these factors into account, an estimated maximum purchase price could be around 400-500 euros, which is a range more in line with the sales history and the condition of the coin. This would allow a buyer to align with the market value observed in previous auctions.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 180 Numistats ref: 656381

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Miscelánea Category
Extenso y amplio resto de colección expuesto en varios álbumes y que contiene centenares de monedas de prácticamente todas las épocas: romana, íbera, medieval, española (de diferentes épocas) y extranjera. Gran cantidad de módulos, valores así como materiales de acuñación. En este conjunto se exponen tanto monedas originales como réplicas por lo que un exhaustivo examen resulta imprescindible. Diferentes estados de conservación. IMPRESCINDIBLE EXAMINAR. Description
- Grade
5 EUR Starting
- Estimate
1600 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 22 Numistats ref: 656223

coin.showNoMatched
No match
FELIPE II Category
FELIPE II (1555-1598). Doble Ducado. (Au. 6,45g/28mm). S/D. Overijssel. (Vicenti 1491). Puntos entre los bustos de los Reyes Católicos, castillo y eslabón en leyenda. MBC. Agujero tapado a las 12h. Rara. Description
MBC Grade
750 EUR Starting
- Estimate
1700 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 54 Numistats ref: 656255

coin.showNoMatched
Fernando VI Authority
4 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 719 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 118 References
Fernando VI Category
FERNANDO VI (1746-1759). 4 Escudos. (Au. 13,50g/30mm)*. 1760. Popayán J. (Cal-2019-719). Encapsulada por PCGS XF45. *Peso y medidas teóricos. Description
XF Grade
1200 EUR Starting
- Estimate
1800 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
3 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, let's consider several factors:

1. Current asking price: 1200 euros.
2. Current grade: 90 (XF), which is a good grade.
3. Auction history:
- In 2019, the coin with a grade of 85 was auctioned for a hammer price of 1711 euros.
- In 2021, the coin with a grade of 95 was auctioned for a hammer price of 3200 euros.

4. Average hammer price: 2455.5 euros, which is a good indicator of market value.

5. Average asking price: 1350 euros, which also suggests a reference value.

Given that the current grade of the coin is 90, which is higher than the 2019 auction (85) and slightly lower than the 2021 auction (95), we can infer that the hammer price should fall within an intermediate range.

Considering the hammer prices of 1711 euros (2019) and 3200 euros (2021), and the fact that the average hammer price is 2455.5 euros, we can estimate that a reasonable maximum purchase price for the coin in grade 90 could be between 2000 and 2500 euros.

Therefore, an estimated maximum purchase price could be approximately 2400 euros. This is based on the trend of previous hammer prices and the current grade of the coin.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 71 Numistats ref: 656272

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Carlos III Category
CARLOS III (1759-1788). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,98g/37mm). 1772. Santiago DA. (Cal-2019-2146). Primer año de busto propio. MBC/MBC+. Description
MBC+ Grade
1500 EUR Starting
- Estimate
1800 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 79 Numistats ref: 656280

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Carlos IV Category
CARLOS IV (1788-1808). 8 Escudos (Au. 26,90g/36mm). 1790. Popayán SF (Cal-2019-1659). Busto de Carlos III y ordinal IV. MBC. Description
MBC Grade
1500 EUR Starting
- Estimate
1900 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 46 Numistats ref: 656247

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Felipe V Category
FELIPE V (1700-1746). 4 Escudos. (Au. 13,44g/30mm). 1738/7. México MF. (Cal-2019-2041). MBC+. Golpecitos en el canto. Escasa.

Ex Aureo & Calicó 338 (Colección Fleming, vol I), 13/11/2019, Nº lote 366.
Description
MBC+ Grade
1200 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2000 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 100 Numistats ref: 656301

coin.showNoMatched
Fernando VII Authority
8 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 1758 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 17 References
Fernando VII Category
FERNANDO VII (1808-1833). 8 Escudos. (Au. 27,02g/36mm). 1812. Lima JP. (Cal-2019-1758). Busto laureado y drapeado grande. MBC+. Hojas en reverso. Description
MBC+ Grade
1500 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2000 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
8 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, we will consider several factors:

1. Current Condition: The coin has a condition rating of 80 (MS+), indicating that it is in quite good shape. This can positively influence its value.

2. Historical Prices:
- In previous auctions, the coin has had hammer prices that vary, but the highest was 2150 euros in 2024 with a condition of 85.
- The average hammer price in past auctions is 1444.5 euros, providing a good reference point.

3. Starting Price and Estimates:
- The current starting price is 1500 euros, which is above the average starting price of 1114.29 euros, suggesting that the seller has high expectations.
- The estimated hammer price for this auction is 1500 euros, which also indicates that considerable interest is expected.

4. Sales Trends: The coin has been auctioned 7 times, of which it has sold 4 times. This suggests that there is moderate interest in the coin, but also that it has not sold 43% of the time, which could indicate that the starting price is an important factor.

5. Comparison with Previous Prices:
- In previous auctions with similar condition (80), hammer prices have been around 1102 euros and 1300 euros. This suggests that the hammer price could be in a similar range.

Based on these factors, an estimated maximum purchase price could be between 1300 and 1600 euros. Given that the starting price is 1500 euros and considering the condition and historical prices, a reasonable maximum price could be 1600 euros. This would allow for competitive bidding in the auction without exceeding the starting price too much, taking into account the interest and quality of the coin.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 68 Numistats ref: 656269

coin.showNoMatched
Carlos III Authority
4 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 1830 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 348 References
Carlos III Category
CARLOS III (1759-1788). 4 Escudos. (Au. 13,39g/32mm). 1760. Popayán J. (Cal-2019-1830). Busto de Fernando VI. Sin indicador de valor. MBC+. Rara. Restos de brillo original. Description
MBC+ Grade
1500 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2100 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
2 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, let's consider several factors:

1. Current starting price: 1500 euros. This is the initial price set for the auction.
2. Condition: The coin has a condition rating of 80 (MBC+), indicating that it is in quite good shape. This may positively influence its value.
3. Historical data: In the previous auction, the same coin was offered with a starting price of 600 euros and was sold for 700 euros, with a condition rating of 75. This suggests that the market has valued this coin in a range of 600 to 700 euros in the past.
4. Average starting and final prices: The average starting price is 1050 euros and the average final price is 700 euros. This indicates that, generally, coins of this reference tend to sell for below their starting price.

Given that the condition of the current coin is better than that of the previous auction, this could justify a higher price. However, the starting price of 1500 euros seems quite high compared to historical prices.

Taking all these factors into account, an estimated maximum purchase price could be positioned between the average final price (700 euros) and an upper margin that considers the better condition. We could estimate a maximum purchase price around 900-1000 euros, which would reflect a reasonable value considering the condition and sales history.

Therefore, the estimated maximum purchase price would be approximately 900 euros.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 179 Numistats ref: 656380

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Miscelánea Category
Conjunto de 16 reproducciones en oro de piezas medievales y monárquicas de distintos reyes y cecas. Peso total del conjunto: 52,38g. IMPRESCINDIBLE EXAMINAR. Description
- Grade
1500 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2200 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 102 Numistats ref: 656303

coin.showNoMatched
Fernando VII Authority
8 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 1865 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 116 References
Fernando VII Category
FERNANDO VII (1808-1833). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,75g/38mm). 1811. Santiago FJ. (Cal-2019-1865). Busto almirante. MBC+. Leves hojitas. Description
MBC+ Grade
1800 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2300 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
43 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, we can consider several factors based on the provided data:

1. Current Condition: The coin has a condition rating of 80 (MBC+). This is an important factor, as coins in better condition tend to reach higher prices.

2. Starting Price and Average Hammer Price: The starting price is 1800 euros, and the average hammer price in previous auctions is 1766.46 euros. This suggests that the hammer price is usually close to the starting price.

3. Auction History: The coin has been auctioned 40 times, of which it has sold 36 times. This indicates good demand. Additionally, the average starting price in previous auctions is 1457.35 euros, suggesting that the current starting price is relatively high.

4. Previous Hammer Prices: By observing the hammer prices of coins with similar conditions (80 and 85), we can see that hammer prices have varied, but generally, coins with a condition of 80 have reached hammer prices ranging between 1300 and 2000 euros.

5. Recent Trends: In the most recent auctions, hammer prices have been higher, which could indicate an upward trend in the value of this coin.

Based on these factors, an estimated maximum purchase price could be between 2000 and 2200 euros, considering that the condition is good and there is a trend of increasing hammer prices. However, since the starting price is 1800 euros, it is likely that buyers will be willing to pay a little more, but not much beyond 2200 euros, unless there is significant competition in the auction.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 67 Numistats ref: 656268

coin.showNoMatched
Carlos III Authority
4 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 1803 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 323 References
Carlos III Category
CARLOS III (1759-1788). 4 Escudos. (Au. 13,21g/30mm). 1768. México MF. (Cal-2019-1803). Tipo cara de rata". BC+. Usada como joya. Restos de soldadura en reverso. Rarísima.

Ex Aureo & Calicó Subasta 355 (Colección Fleming vol. II) 19/11/2020. Nº Lote 1960."
Description
BC+ Grade
900 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2500 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
2 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, let's consider several factors:

1. Current starting price: 900 euros.
2. Current grade: 30 (BC+), which indicates a fairly low grade.
3. Auction history: The coin has been auctioned once before, with a starting price of 3000 euros and a hammer price of 5000 euros at a grade of 70. This suggests that the coin may have significant value in better condition.
4. Average starting and hammer price: The average starting price is 1950 euros and the average hammer price is 5000 euros, indicating that, in general, this coin has high sales potential.

Given that the current grade is quite low (30), the hammer price will not be as high as in the previous case (grade 70). However, the interest in the coin and its auction history suggest that there could be considerable value.

Taking all these factors into account, an estimated maximum purchase price could be in the range of 1000 to 1500 euros. This is based on the current starting price and the coin's potential, but adjusted for its low grade.

Therefore, a reasonable maximum purchase price could be 1200 euros.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 99 Numistats ref: 656300

coin.showNoMatched
Fernando VII Authority
8 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 1754 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 13 References
Fernando VII Category
FERNANDO VII (1808-1833). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,78g/36mm). 1809. Lima JP. (Cal-2019-1754). Busto Indígena. EBC-. Pequeñas hojitas en reverso. Description
ebc- Grade
2000 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2600 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
15 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, we will consider several factors:

1. Current Condition: The coin has a condition rating of 85 (ebc-), indicating that it is in fairly good shape, but not the best possible condition.

2. Historical Prices: Looking at previous auction prices, we can see that the coin has reached auction prices of up to 2800 euros in the past, although it has also had lower auction results. The average auction price in the past is 1646.82 euros.

3. Starting Price: The current starting price is 2000 euros, which is higher than the historical average auction price, suggesting that the seller has high expectations.

4. Sales Trends: The coin has sold in 11 of the last 13 auctions, indicating relatively good demand.

5. Comparison with Similar Conditions: In previous auctions, coins with similar conditions (such as 80 and 90) have had auction prices that varied, but generally sold for above 1500 euros.

Taking all these factors into account, an estimated maximum purchase price could be in the range of 2000 to 2500 euros. This is based on the current condition, historical demand, and the starting price. A price of 2500 euros could be a reasonable limit, as it is above the starting price and aligns with previous auction prices for similar conditions.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 144 Numistats ref: 656345

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Miscelánea Category
REINO VISIGODO. Colección compuesta por 45 réplicas diferentes, principalmente de Trientes, y a nombre de una gran variedad de reyes. Diferentes estados de conservación. A EXAMINAR. Description
- Grade
450 EUR Starting
- Estimate
2600 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 55 Numistats ref: 656256

coin.showNoMatched
Fernando VI Authority
8 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 796 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 48 References
Fernando VI Category
FERNANDO VI (1746-1759). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,90g/38mm). 1758. Popayán J. (Cal-2019-796). Sin indicador de valor. EBC-. Marquitas en anverso. Escasa. Description
ebc- Grade
3000 EUR Starting
- Estimate
3250 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
8 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, we will consider several factors:

1. Current Condition: The coin has a condition rating of 85 (ebc-), indicating that it is in quite good shape. This generally translates to a higher price compared to coins with lower conditions.

2. Auction History:
- The coin has been auctioned 6 times in the past, of which it has sold 5 times. This suggests that there is consistent interest in the coin.
- The average starting price in previous auctions has been 1900 euros, and the average hammer price has been 2240 euros. This indicates that, on average, coins of this reference tend to sell for a price close to 2240 euros.

3. Previous Prices:
- In past auctions, the hammer prices have varied, but the highest was 3400 euros in 2014, indicating potential for reaching higher prices depending on demand.
- The last auction in 2022 had a hammer price of 1600 euros, which could indicate a downward trend in interest or value, but this may be an isolated case.

4. Current Starting Price: The current starting price is 3000 euros, which is significantly higher than the average starting price of previous auctions. This may be an indicator that the seller expects high interest in this auction.

5. Maximum Price Estimate: Given that the condition is good and considering the price history, a maximum purchase price could be situated between the average hammer price (2240 euros) and the highest recorded price (3400 euros). However, since the starting price is 3000 euros, it is reasonable to estimate that the maximum purchase price could be around 3000-3500 euros, depending on the competition in the auction.

Maximum Purchase Price Estimate: 3500 euros.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 48 Numistats ref: 656249

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Felipe V Authority
8 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 2308 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 199 References
Felipe V Category
FELIPE V (1700-1746). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,94g/37mm). 1733. Sevilla PA. (Cal-2019-2308). Sin indicador de valor. MBC+. Golpecitos. Muy escasa. Description
MBC+ Grade
4000 EUR Starting
- Estimate
4001 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
6 Past auctions
Subscribe Sold
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, we will consider several factors:

1. Current Condition: The coin has a condition of 80 (MS+). This is an important factor, as coins in better condition tend to reach higher prices.

2. Previous Auction Prices:
- In 2019, a coin with a condition of 85 sold for 4200 euros.
- In 2015, a coin with a condition of 80 sold for 2560 euros.
- In 2021, a coin with a condition of 85 sold for 3600 euros.
- In 2024, a coin with a condition of 85 sold for 7000 euros.

3. Starting Price and Average Hammer Price: The current starting price is 4000 euros, and the average hammer price in previous auctions is 4340 euros.

4. Price Trends: We observe that the hammer price has been increasing, especially for coins with a condition of 85, suggesting an upward trend in the market.

Given that the condition of the coin in question is 80, and considering the hammer prices of similar coins, an estimated maximum purchase price could be in the range of 4000 to 5000 euros.

However, since the starting price is 4000 euros and the average hammer price is 4340 euros, a reasonable maximum purchase price could be approximately 4500 euros. This allows for a margin to compete in the auction without exceeding the market value observed in previous auctions.

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 70 Numistats ref: 656271

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Carlos III Category
CARLOS III (1759-1788). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,97g/35mm). 1765. México MF. (Cal-2019-1989). Tipo cara de rata". MBC. Contramarca de 4 roeles en anverso. Rara.

Entre 1762 y 1772 y hasta en siete cecas diferentes se acuñan estas emblemáticas monedas cuyo busto es obra de Tomás Francisco Prieto. En el caso de la ceca de México los últimos ejemplares salieron de sus talleres un año antes en 1771 y podemos encontrarlas con dos marcas de ensayadores diferentes MM y MF. Además y para esta ceca se distinguen también dos tipos de bustos cara de rata diferentes (aunque en el primero de ellos encontramos otro subtipo: los que tienen el toisón a derecha de la fecha y las que la tienen sobre el pecho)."
Description
MBC Grade
4000 EUR Starting
- Estimate
4250 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 101 Numistats ref: 656302

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Fernando VII Category
FERNANDO VII (1808-1833). 320 Reales. (Au. 27,13g/35mm). 1822. Madrid SR. (Cal-2019-1778). MBC+. Restos de brillo original.

Entre el Sexenio Absolutista y la Década Ominosa se encuentra la primera gran experiencia liberal de la España contemporánea. El conocido como Trienio Liberal (1820-1823) es una vuelta a los valores de la Carta Magna de 1812 con unas Cortes de marcado carácter moderado. Esta moderación e intento de cambio de rumbo se aprecia también en la numismática del momento, que incluye una serie de cambios significativos y simbólicos que merecen la pena señalar: hay un cambio esencial en la leyenda con la aparición por vez primera del término Const o Constitución, pues, el rey durante este periodo queda sometido a ella. Por otro lado, y también en la leyenda, se sustituye el latín por el castellano como idioma oficial para estas acuñaciones. Por último, señalar los cambios iconográficos en el propio busto del rey que ahora no se presenta diademado o laureado sino de una manera mucho más sencilla y sin artificios o adornos que nos recuerden a un rey absolutista.
Description
MBC+ Grade
4500 EUR Starting
- Estimate
4750 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 69 Numistats ref: 656270

coin.showNoMatched
No match
Carlos III Category
CARLOS III (1759-1788). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,85g/36mm). 1761. Lima JM. (Cal-2019-1914). Primer busto. MBC+. Limpiada. Rara. Description
MBC+ Grade
5000 EUR Starting
- Estimate
5000 EUR Realized

ibercoin - #101. Conde de Orgaz Collection . 47 Numistats ref: 656248

coin.showNoMatched
Felipe V Authority
8 Escudos Denomination
- Year
Aureo-Calicó (2019) 2281 Aureo-Calicó (2008) 172 References
Felipe V Category
FELIPE V (1700-1746). 8 Escudos. (Au. 26,85g/36mm). 1712. Sevilla M. (Cal-2019-2281). Tipo Cruz. Ceca, ensayador y valor en reverso. MBC+. Vanos de acuñación. Escasa.

Hasta 1728, fecha en la que aparecen los primeros bustos, los conocidos como tipo cruz se convierten en los oros más icónicos del reinado de Felipe V aunque no suponga, este diseño, una novedad en la numismática española. Cuenca, Valencia, Segovia, Madrid y Sevilla son las cecas peninsulares donde se acuñan estas piezas que nos muestran un buen número de variantes y matices que hacen muy interesante su coleccionismo. En el caso de la sevillana, y a diferencia de otras cecas que omiten esta información, muestra tanto el valor como el ensayador y la ceca en el reverso, justo en los huecos que dejan el enmarque polilobulado de la cruz potenzada (justamente la disposición y el orden de la S, M y el 8 es lo que da lugar a diferentes variantes). El descentre de la acuñación así como la ausencia de nexo del toisón en las primeras acuñaciones son otras de las características de estas piezas.
Description
MBC+ Grade
4500 EUR Starting
- Estimate
6250 EUR Realized
History
0 Upcoming auctions
14 Past auctions
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Price recommendation
AI Recommendation
To estimate a maximum purchase price for the coin in question, we can consider several factors based on the provided data:

1. Current Condition: The coin has a condition rating of 80 (MBC+). This is an important factor, as coins in better condition tend to reach higher prices.

2. Starting Price and Average Hammer Price: The current starting price is 4500 euros, and the average hammer price in previous auctions is 4365 euros. This suggests that the starting price is aligned with the market value.

3. Auction History: In the past, the coin has had hammer prices that varied significantly, ranging from 1300 euros to 8000 euros, depending on the condition and other factors. The last auction in 2024 shows a hammer price of 8000 euros for a coin with a condition of 90.

4. Price Trends: By observing the hammer prices of coins with similar conditions (80 and 85), we can see that prices have fluctuated, but tend to be in a high range when the condition is good.

5. Estimation Based on Historical Data: Given that the condition of the coin is 80, and considering that in the past, coins with similar conditions have sold for prices ranging between 4000 and 7000 euros, we can estimate a maximum purchase price.

Taking all these factors into account, an estimated maximum purchase price for this coin could be around 6000 euros. This price reflects a balance between the current condition, the price history, and market trends.